Barking

Strategy

Barking is passing instead of calling: the Hammer moves to the player on your left and everyone rolls again.

Should you bark?

Call. Even your worst roll beats a bark.

As the Hammer you pick the game after seeing your dice. A bark throws that away for random dice and the last seat.

Players
Worst roll, calling36.1%
Barking, any roll43.8%

Chance of taking the pencil at 3 players. The worst roll calls 10-3 Low.

See every roll, worst first
For tables that turn down a 10-4 on sight

No bar reaches the tick (a bark, 43.8%), so every roll does better calling.

  1. 1
    10-3 Low36.1%
  2. 2
    Tres Away29.6%
  3. 3
    Tres Away29.0%
  4. 4
    10-3 High26.0%
  5. 5
    Pairs High25.6%
  6. 6
    Razzle25.2%
  7. 7
    Boss24.2%
  8. 8
    Pairs High22.5%
  9. 9
    Pairs Low22.0%
  10. 10
    Pairs High19.9%

Bar: your chance of the pencil with the recommended call, refusals played out. Tick: a bark. 2,000 rounds each against solid bots, good to about ±2.1%.

Why does calling win?
  • You pick the game after seeing your dice. Nobody else gets to.
  • A bark swaps your dice for random ones and puts you last, with the next player holding the Hammer’s edge.
  • Refusals can’t stop you. If both refusers say no, your second call can’t be refused.
  • You only have to beat one player, and more players means more chances someone finishes below you.
11%🔹You45%44%
You callYou keep the Hammer: 11%
44%You11%🔹45%
You barkThe Hammer passes left; you’re last: 44%

Each seat’s chance of the pencil with random dice. The Hammer’s is lowest; a bark gives it to the player on your left.

What about calling a game I don’t have?

Almost never worth it. “Nobody will have it” is true on the first roll, not by the third. 10-4 is made 22% of the time on the first roll, but 53% within three.

Chance of making each kicker game from a fresh roll
GameFirst rollWithin three
10-249.1%86.8%
10-363.9%95.3%
10-422.2%53.0%
SCC31.6%72.9%
Monterey25.5%72.5%
7's32.4%81.3%
Pairs29.0%77.2%

How to compare: find your best call that you hold (a game you’ve made, or Tres Away, Boss or Razzle, which every roll plays) and your best one you don’t. Call the lower chance of the pencil; within 3 points, call the one you hold. The Strategy Assistant ranks every call for your roll.

How often a game you don’t hold wins: never as a first call, never as a second call, and only by a hair. Missing is shared when two or more miss (they play another cycle), but a made game still starts you ahead.

Make odds are exact. Call odds are from rounds played by solid bots at a 3-player table, everyone playing the call.

Does the table size change it?

Calling wins at every size. More players means more people who can finish below you: the worst roll loses 53% at 2 players but 10% at 8.

The worst roll to hold the Hammer with, calling against barking, by table size
PlayersWorst rollCallNo 10-4Bark
210-3 Low52.7%52.7%63.0%
310-3 Low36.1%36.1%43.8%
410-3 Low24.1%24.1%34.8%
510-3 Low19.2%19.2%26.3%
610-3 Low13.5%13.5%20.8%
7Tres Away13.1%13.1%17.4%
8Tres Away10.2%10.2%14.5%

Chances of taking the pencil. “No 10-4”: the worst roll when your table won’t play a 10-4 (it may be a different roll).

What do these numbers assume?
  • Solid opponents. They refuse based on their own dice and don’t read anything into your call.
  • The site’s recommended call. Each roll calls the game it loses least when everyone plays it. Against the bots, a decoy (a weaker first call, made to be refused so your real game comes second, unrefusable) sometimes does a little better: 8 of 252 rolls at 3 players, by 2.2% at most. Real players can see a decoy coming, so it isn’t the advice.
  • Nobody else barks, and only this round’s pencil counts (not the pot or the pencil count).
  • Simulated. 2,000 rounds per call figure, 20,000 per bark figure: good to about ±2 points.